This
is an analysis of the Santa Barbara Real Estate market including Carpinteria/Summerland,
Montecito, Hope Ranch, downtown Santa Barbara and Goleta through the month of December
2014. For the Home Estate/PUD market the
numbers of sales rose slightly from the previous month to about 80 in December
rising from 73 in November but down from the 87 we saw in October. The Median
Sales Price also rose for the month going to about $990,000 in December from
$945,000 in November and the $985,000 we saw in October. The opened escrows also remained stable in
December going to about 74 from 72 in November but down from the 104 we saw in
October while the median list price on those escrows rose from $1,010,000 in
November to about $1,095,000 in December. There were approximately 59 new
listings that came on the market in December with a median list price of
approximately $1,295,000 million and an average list price of just about $2.075
million which left the overall inventory falling from 278 units for sale in
November to roughly 220 in December.
Year over year sales are down about 17% from 2013 but
the median sales price is up to about $1.12 million for approximately an 18.5%
rise. The average sales price is also up going from about $1.4 million in 2013 to
approximately $1.7 million in 2014 for another 18.5% rise while the numbers of
escrows are down with about 1,230 in ’13 to roughly 1,070 in ‘14 for a 13% drop
with the median list price on those escrows up about 18% to approximately $1.15
million.
Looking at the
Districts, Carpinteria/Summerland sales are down from 109 to 85 but the median
sales price is up from $852,500 to $922,500. The numbers of escrows are also down
from 105 to 93 with the median list price on those escrows rising from $865,450
in ‘13 to $949,500 in ‘14.
For Montecito, sales are down going from
230 to 207 with the median sales price rising from $2.4 million to $2.7
million. Escrows are also down going from 237 to 204 but the median list price
on those escrows is up from $2.49 million to $2.95 million.
East of State St sales are down
going from 317 in ’13 to 298 in ‘14 but the median sales price is up from $988,500
to $1,187,000. The escrows also went down from 321 to 301 with the median list
price on those escrows rising from $1,025,000 in ‘13 to $1,200,000 in ‘14.
West of State St sales are down from
280 to 231 but the median sales price is up from $872,500 to $961,000. The
numbers of escrows are also down with 289 in ’13 compared to 236 in ‘14 but the
median list price on those escrows is up from $895,000 in ‘13 to $950,000 in
‘14.
Hope Ranch sales are up however from
32 to 35 and the median sales price is up from $2.375 million to $2.812
million. The numbers of escrows are also up with 27 in ‘13 compared to 40 ‘14
and the median list price on those escrows is up from $2.572 million in ’13 to
$3.195 million in ‘14.
Goleta South sales are down with
116 in ‘13 and 81 in ‘14 and the median sales price is down from $750,500 to $750,000.
The numbers of escrows are also down from 101 to 84 with the median list price
on those escrows rising from $719,000 to $749,000.
Goleta North sales are down with
215 in ’13 and 163 in ’14 with the median sales price rising from $793,500 to $844,000.
The numbers of escrows are down from 202 to 179 with the median list price on
those escrows going from $798,500 to $848,000.
For the Condo segment of
the market, sales rose to around 46 in December from 39 in November and 40 in October.
The median sales price fell however from $735,000 in November to roughly $525,000
in December while the numbers of escrows fell from 44 in November to about 38
in December with the median list price on those escrows rising just a little from
$572,000 in November to about $572,500 in December.
There were about 30 new
condo listings that came on the market for the month with a median list price
of approximately $570,000 falling from $599,000 in November and an average list
price of approximately $655,000 falling from about $750,000 in November while the
overall inventory fell for the month from 105 units for sale in November to approximately
85 in December.
Looking at the Districts,
Carpinteria/Summerland sales are down from 83 to 48 with the median sales price
rising from $445,000 to $497,000. The numbers of escrows are also down from 78
in ‘13 to 53 in ‘14 but the median list price on those escrows is up from $449,900
to $499,000.
Montecito condo sales are down with
30 in ’13 and 17 in ‘14 but the median sales price is up from $1,170,000 to
$1,565,000. The numbers of escrows are also down with 29 in ’13 and 19 in ‘14
while the median list price on those escrows is up from $1,245,000 in ’13 to $1,749,000
in ‘14.
East of State St sales are even
from 103 to 103 with the median sales price rising from $545,925 to $640,000. The
numbers of escrows are up going from 100 to 105 with the median list price on
those escrows up from $570,000 in ‘13 to $644,000 to ‘14.
West of State St sales are up from
113 to 130 with the median sales price rising from $535,000 to $644,000. The escrows
went up from 112 to 135 with the median list price on those escrows going from
$558,500 to $629,500.
Goleta South sales are up from 72 to 99 with the median sales price up from
$445,000 to $538,500. The numbers of escrows are also up with 76 in ’13 and 99
in ‘14 with the median list price on those escrows up from $449,500 in ’13 to $550,000
in ‘14.
Goleta North sales are
up from 57 to 62 with the median sales price up from $420,000 to $455,000. The
escrows are also up from 55 to 62 with the median list price on those escrows going
up from $425,000 to $449,000.
Through the end of December sales of single-family
homes is down about 17% while the median sales price for those homes is up
about 19%. For condos, sales are down approximately 2% with the median sales
price up about 10%. Of the single-family homes that sold for the month roughly
9% of those sales were over the asking price and for condos that number was also
9%. The average over asking price for
homes that sold was about 3% and for condos that number was about 4%. On the
other side of the coin 15% of the single-family homes had a price reduction and
18% of the condos dropped their price.
At the end of 2014 sales of single-family homes went
down significantly while the median sales price for those homes went up significantly.
But, with new listings declining 4 years in row it looks like the numbers of
sales will continue to decline in 2015. Also, despite the huge run up in the
median sales price for the year that rise started cooling in the last 5 months
of the year with the median sales price declining 4 months in a row. If
interest rates start to move up then prices will fall but if interest rates
remain low then prices should flatten out. For 2015 the real estate market is
dependent on the inventory. If the listings start increasing reversing the
trend of the previous 4 years then the sales will rise but if listings remain
stagnant then sales will continue to decrease.
Gary Woods
